The ouster of long-time Zaire dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and the reports of human rights violations inspired Compass writer Kirby F. Smith to ask Africa expert Thomas Callaghy, the chairman of the political science department, to assess the situation there.
Q. Will Laurent Kabila's new government in the Congo be an improvement or will it be business as usual?
A. He is likely to be a true improvement, not just a new dictator.
Q. Do you agree with the Clinton administration's call for an investigation of allegations that Kabila's fighters slaughtered Rwandan refugees, as a condition for the resumption of aid to the Congolese government?
A. This is the dilemma for the Kabila government and the U.S. government is right to pursue it.
He has now promised to cooperate fully with the U.N. investigation, set to begin on July 7. Kabila has also promised to punish those for whom "sufficient evidence" exists, thereby providing a possible loophole to evade enforcement.
The key all along, however, has been his inability to stop small-scale killings that have been going on for months by groups in his armed forces; no evidence exists that Kabila has ordered the killings. The position of the Rwandan government remains unclear.
This is Kabila's single most important political dilemma at the moment-not the rivalry of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, but the gaining of full control over his military.
Q. Well, isn't Kabila's agreement to designate a cabinet minister to deal with the United Nations on the plight of refugees a positive sign?
A. Yes, it's a nice move, but implementation is key. Kabila has made promises of cooperation before and they have been broken during implementation. I suspect that this crisis may be different, but only time will tell.
The U.N. still says 250,000 people are missing, implying that this means many refugees were massacred. I have long been uneasy about that figure. This is not to rule out the possibility that some large-scale killings did take place, however.
Q. How can Kabila respond to opposition militants who accuse him of making the country a colony of Rwanda's Tutsi-led government, which heavily backed him and his army?
A. Handling relations with the Rwandan government will remain a major problem for Kabila-both in terms of external relations and in domestic politics. I think he has to tackle the Tutsi issue head on by reminding everybody, inside and outside the Congo, that many Tutsi are really Congolese citizens and not "Rwandans," and as such, according to democratic norms, have every right to participate in national politics, serve in the military and the government, and organize political parties. The opposition will continue to try to exploit this issue.
Q. What conditions should be met before the United States gives aid?
A. It is proper for this country and others to press the human rights issue. The U. S. has already offered small-scale aid now for elections, health and humanitarian purposes, and possibly even some technical military aid having to do with organizing the armed forces, with more assistance to come over the next two years if human rights progress is made.
Kabila's agreement to create an electoral commission is a good sign, but it's something he had already promised to do. This agreement has allowed the United States to back off its more strident demands for full democracy, and focus instead on "democratic evolution."
Q. If the U.S. Agency for International Development decides to resume its assistance program to the Congo, how should the money be used?
A. Major aid should go to the revival of the economy and Congo's infrastructure; everybody benefits from this-not just the Kabila government. Debt relief should be a first priority along with assistance in dealing with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Q. Finally, are there any political developments in neighboring countries that concern you?
A. Two other sets of events should be watched closely-the rising anarchy in the other Congo and the increased fighting between Angolan troops and Unita rebels in northern Angola. The former is more important because Mobutuist remnants can use it to get themselves organized to harass the Kabila government along the northern border. Events in Angola are less threatening, but, if it gets worse, Unita units might move into the Congo for temporary sanctuary and will need to be dealt with by Kabila's still-stretched and not fully organized military.
Return to Compass Features for June 17, 1997